The declines many school districts reported last year have continued, an NPR investigation finds. What educators don't know is where those students have gone.

Transcript

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

An NPR investigation has discovered that the pandemic is continuing to profoundly disrupt education. In many places across this country, public school enrollment has dropped for a second straight year. NPR's Anya Kamenetz was part of the project. And she joins us now. Hey there, Anya.

ANYA KAMENETZ, BYLINE: Hey, Steve.

INSKEEP: What did you find?

KAMENETZ: So some of the nation's largest districts - like New York, Los Angeles, Chicago - had announced a second straight year of enrollment drops this fall. So our team got curious. And we compiled the latest head counts directly from more than 650 districts in 23 states and Washington, D.C. And we should say, you know, this is not necessarily a comprehensive sample. We did also interview more than a dozen large district leaders. And pretty much everywhere we looked, Steve, districts - especially large districts - are mostly down for a second year in a row.

INSKEEP: OK, not a comprehensive sample, maybe, but a very big sample. You said more than 600 districts. That is impressive. But is it surprising, given that the pandemic has continued?

KAMENETZ: Well, last year, the federal government reported public school enrollment dropped by 3% nationwide. And that erased about a decade of gains. But that was supposed to be temporary because it was clearly driven by kids sitting out preschool and kindergarten. And those are years where families - it's now compulsory. And, you know, maybe they didn't want to put their kids through virtual learning. So districts were hopeful about getting them back this year. But for this project, we looked at every single district in the states of Massachusetts and Georgia, among many others around the country. And in more than half of those, there's a second straight year of declines even though schools are generally back full-time in-person now.

INSKEEP: If the kids are not showing up in public school, where are they?

KAMENETZ: Well, we looked around. Private school enrollment is reportedly up. Homeschooling seems to be up. Many charter schools are up. But of course, the biggest worry is the students that we don't know where they are.

INSKEEP: Why would - what do you mean by that?

KAMENETZ: Well, the students who may have dropped out.

INSKEEP: I see what you're saying. Why would families and students be leaving public school districts?

KAMENETZ: You know, from superintendents, we heard a variety of things. Obviously, this semester has been a tough one, with lots of staff shortages, kids getting sent home for quarantines. In some places, like Ohio and Michigan, we heard there's a vocal minority of parents who reject mask mandates. And they're not going to choose public schools because those mandates are in place. And then there's the other end of the spectrum in cities like Rochester and New York City and Chicago. We heard there are parents, especially Black, Hispanic and Asian parents, who still don't feel safe coming to school in-person. So I talked to Tanesha Grant with the group Parents Supporting Parents. And she is keeping her son home from his public school in New York City. She represents a group of parents who want a permanent remote option. Here's Tanesha Grant.

TANESHA GRANT: And I have, you know, children that are telling their parents, I don't want to go to school because I don't want to get the virus and come home and kill you.

INSKEEP: Wow. How are districts affected by these declines that you're seeing?

KAMENETZ: Well, in a lot of ways, you know, when families leave, districts can lose funding. And there is extra federal money coming in right now for COVID relief. So that's not as much of an immediate concern. But, you know, in the bigger picture, declining enrollment can be hard on cities because thriving public schools are so connected to property values and kind of like the animal spirits of a city. The real concern, though, I think, for the country at large is the portion of kids who may have actually dropped out. And in several different cities, superintendents told us more and more high school students than ever are working right now to support their families. This is Dr. Lesli Myers-Small, the superintendent in Rochester, N.Y., which is down about 1,000 students from last school year.

LESLI MYERS-SMALL: We have some students that just - particularly older students - who are just saying, you know what? I got a job. I'm not coming back.

KAMENETZ: Or, she said, they're not hearing back from them at all because they're not answering their phones. And in several different cities, principals are actually calling up fast food restaurants and grocery stores and saying, please, don't schedule this teenager for daytime shifts. She needs to come to school.

INSKEEP: Are schools also kind of competing to get students back?

KAMENETZ: Absolutely. I mean, in Dallas, there have been billboards. Baltimore's chief of schools said they made thousands of contacts, sending out letters, calling, knocking on doors. In Baltimore, they did get quite a few students back this year. For the older students, they are kind of innovating. So Jackson, Miss., told us they're designing a new, fully virtual option for high school. Dallas is also bringing back night school to try to work around these kids' schedules who are working.

INSKEEP: What are the long-term implications if those efforts don't work?

KAMENETZ: You know, from the moment that schools shut down, Steve, the researchers' concerns have been that children, and especially teenagers, would get knocked off their educational paths and, really, their life paths. And, you know, there's a lot of bad outcomes if people don't graduate from high school long term or graduate from college. So tracking down these students who have gone missing, offering an on-ramp back to graduation, that's a matter of urgency for these school leaders.

INSKEEP: Anya Kamenetz from the NPR education team. Thanks so much.

KAMENETZ: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.