Russian forces have begun an offensive in eastern Ukraine. Residents near a derailed freight train in Ohio worry about toxic chemicals. One of the deadliest U.S. federal prison units is closing.

Transcript

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

Russian forces have begun an offensive in Ukraine.

ASMA KHALID, HOST:

Tens of thousands of new troops are forcing Ukrainian soldiers to pull back. This Russian attack comes near the one-year anniversary of the invasion. Ukraine's American allies expect to see more fighting in the weeks ahead. General Mark Milley spoke with our colleague Leila Fadel this week.

MARK MILLEY: Now, as we get into the spring as thaw comes here in probably a few more weeks, you're looking at the March-April time frame, you are likely to see more movement, more offensive operations. So I do think this is a critical moment.

INSKEEP: That interview is part of an upcoming NPR special on the war's first year. NPR's Tom Bowman, our Pentagon correspondent, is here to talk about the second year. Tom, good morning.

TOM BOWMAN, BYLINE: Good morning, Steve.

INSKEEP: What are the Russians really doing?

BOWMAN: Well, it seems the Russians have started their counteroffensive. And what they want to do is gain even more ground in the eastern part of the country, in the Donbas, with the first-year anniversary coming next week. A lot more troops are heading in, and the sense is more towns in the east will fall to the Russian forces who, again, are trying to make gains. Russia is taking huge amounts of casualties, and they've lost a lot of tanks and armor. But, again, tens of thousands of Russian troops flowing in and, Steve, this is saying that quantity has a quality all its own, and that comes from a former Soviet leader named Joseph Stalin.

INSKEEP: Tom, Ukrainian officials began 2023 talking about moving the other way, as did their American supporters, talking about a Ukrainian offensive or counteroffensive to take even more territory back from the Russians. What happened to that?

BOWMAN: Well, we're likely to see it and, as General Milley said, probably sometime in the spring, maybe April or even into May when the ground dries out and also when they get their tanks and armor and better trained troops. Ukrainian troops are training in England in small units, and larger units are doing training at U.S. training facilities in Germany. They want to make sure they have, again, all the armor and the trained troops before they mount this counteroffensive.

INSKEEP: I want to call attention to something General Milley said. He said this is a critical moment, but people are always saying that various moments in this war are critical moments. What about this particular set of offensives and counteroffensives would be critical?

BOWMAN: Well, I think it's critical for the Ukrainians. They have to show NATO and the U.S. that they can actually achieve something. Can they push the Russians back in the eastern part of the country? Or can they, as some say, will likely head south and split that Russian land bridge that goes from Russia to Crimea? The sense is they may push into Melitopol on the Sea of Azov. That would prevent the Russians from supplying their forces in Crimea because the only other way in by land is that bridge that you remember the Ukrainians partially destroyed a while back. But what can the Ukrainians achieve? Now, they say they want to push all the Russians out of the entire country. General Milley and others have said you're not going to able to do that. And also the Russians wanted to take the entire country. General Milley said they can't do that either. So what can they do?

INSKEEP: U.S. officials have said again and again they will support Ukraine for as long as it takes. But let me interrogate that a little bit. Is there something of a time pressure here for the Ukrainians that they know that their support from the international community maybe can't go forever?

BOWMAN: I think there's probably right. If they can't achieve much, you may start to see some European countries start to say, we can't keep this thing going forever. The United States may say we're with you right to the end, but you might see some of those European countries, because of the cost of this, saying, you know what? It's really time to sit down at a negotiating table.

INSKEEP: NPR's Tom Bowman, thanks so much.

BOWMAN: You're welcome, Steve.

KHALID: At least one person is dead, and three others are injured after a shooting at a shopping mall in El Paso, Texas. It took place just down the road where a gunman killed 23 people at a Walmart in 2019. Police have detained two suspects and are investigating a potential motive in this latest shooting, which comes only days after a gunman killed three people at Michigan State University. All this gun violence is again leading to calls to do something. We're joined now by Olivia Troye. She's a member of a gun safety advocacy group called 97Percent. And she served as homeland security and counterterrorism adviser to former Vice President Mike Pence. Good morning, Olivia.

OLIVIA TROYE: Good morning.

KHALID: So I've got to begin by asking you a personal question. I know you're from El Paso. And in fact, you mentioned on Twitter yesterday that your aunt was at the shopping mall complex during the shooting yesterday, and she survived the 2019 Walmart shooting. How is she doing?

TROYE: Yeah, it's been a really hard 24 hours. I - she is doing OK. She's obviously shaken. I am just so impressed by her resilience and strength. She obviously, you know, is, I think, experiencing the aftermath of the trauma, having been through both of these shootings in El Paso now. And I am just so grateful - we all are - that it was strangers who have helped her each and every time. She hid in the back. One of the people that she goes to - she's a regular at one of the little cafes there in the mall - pulled her into the back kitchen. The lady at that cafe was incredibly action-oriented and closed the gate, turned the lights off and hid everyone in their back kitchen.

KHALID: Oh, wow. So the gun safety and advocacy group that you are a part of, 97Percent, it says its mission is to reduce gun deaths in the country. Can you give me some specifics on what you all are doing to achieve that?

TROYE: Yeah, sure. Our goal is basically to create research-backed package of policies. We work by bringing together non-gun owners and gun owners, which we think is a more holistic approach and really inviting people into the conversation and working holistically together to find a better path forward. We believe in, you know, making sure violent criminals can't access guns. We believe that, you know, violent misdemeanor crimes should be the threshold for exclusion for gun purchases. And we believe in gun permit laws at the state level in conjunction with background checks. And we obviously believe in red flag laws at the state level. This is based on conversations and research with people who are, you know, Second Amendment supporters, gun enthusiasts. We're a group that has brought together Republicans and Democrats, former members of Congress, current members of Congress, former national security people like myself. And we also have two NRA - former NRA lobbyists on our board.

KHALID: I want to ask you about one idea that President Biden has been reiterating quite a bit lately. He called even in his State of the Union address for a ban on assault weapons. Do you think that that's something that would help improve the situation around gun violence?

TROYE: I mean, surely reducing the number of guns that we have in our streets in the United States, I think, would be an important step. But the reality is, is that we don't we that happening politically any time soon.

KHALID: Like, politically don't see it happening.

TROYE: Politically, yes. Politically, we just don't see the threshold for that. And also the reality is, is that I think gun owners don't really agree with that being the necessary approach when there are so many other measures that we could be taking to reduce gun violence.

KHALID: So we have about 30 seconds left. I guess I want to understand - I mean, given that so many people want to see something change, why are we still not seeing a sort of substantial change on this front?

TROYE: I think we need leadership. I think we need elected leaders to act on this. And quite frankly, it needs to come mostly from the Republican side. I think - you know, I think Senator Cornyn in Texas, which is where I'm from and where El Paso is, took the right first step after the horrible and tragic Uvalde shooting in Texas.

KHALID: Olivia, we've got to leave it there. But thank you very much for taking the time. I appreciate it.

TROYE: Thank you for having me.

KHALID: Olivia Troye served as homeland security and counterterrorism adviser to former Vice President Mike Pence.

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)

INSKEEP: Relatives of the famed Chilean poet Pablo Neruda say their suspicions of half a century are confirmed. Did you know this? They've long accused state agents of poisoning the poet after a U.S.-backed coup in Chile back in 1973. Now forensic scientists have delivered findings to officials that do show a toxin in his remains. Here's NPR's Carrie Kahn.

CARRIE KAHN, BYLINE: For the past five decades, the official story is that days after the coup, Pablo Neruda died in a Santiago hospital due to complications from prostate cancer. No one ever believed that lie, says Rodolfo Reyes, Neruda's nephew.

RODOLFO REYES: (Speaking Spanish).

KAHN: "He was injected with a bacteria that caused his death," Reyes told NPR. Reyes is a lawyer and has seen the report that was delivered to the court. Scientists from Canada, Denmark and Chile reported they found large quantities of the bacterium that can cause botulism poisoning in bone and tooth samples from Neruda's exhumed body.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

PABLO NERUDA: (Speaking Spanish).

KAHN: Perhaps the 20th century's most read poet, Neruda won the Nobel Prize for Literature in 1971. He wrote epic poems about love, like his famous 20 on the topic. Here he is heard reading No. 15.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

NERUDA: (Speaking Spanish).

KAHN: He was also a Chilean diplomat and staunch supporter of President Salvador Allende, a socialist who was deposed by the military with help from the U.S. in 1973. Reyes says there is no doubt that dictator Augusto Pinochet, who went on to rule Chile for the next two decades, killed his uncle.

REYES: (Speaking Spanish).

KAHN: "He or his agents were the only ones at the time capable of such a murder," says Reyes. Canada's McMaster University said scientists there did detect the toxin but couldn't conclude if it killed Neruda. However, they say the same bacterium was used to kill political prisoners in Chile in the 1980s. Chilean Judge Paola Plaza says the court must decide now how to proceed.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

PAOLA PLAZA: (Speaking Spanish).

KAHN: For now, she says, they are studying the findings. Relatives of Neruda want a criminal investigation open.

REYES: (Speaking Spanish).

KAHN: Reyes says Neruda himself has spoken. The science today tells us that, yes, he was murdered. Carrie Kahn, NPR News. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.