Ahead of the Emmys on Sunday, NPR’s TV critic presents The Deggy awards

As TV gets more complicated and Hollywood gets more desperate, it seems we ask this question every ceremony: Can the Emmys get any more confusing?

Fortunately, you are now reading a guide for cutting through all the nonsense: My very own TV awards with a long, distinguished history, The Deggys.

Yes, it’s only been nine months since the last Deggys, thanks to strikes last year which pushed last year’s Emmy telecast all the way to January of this year. But Sunday’s contest promises to put everything back on track – though I’m a little worried about seeing two comedic actors, the father-son duo of Eugene and Dan Levy, hosting the Emmys at a time when only experienced, pro-level MCs like Jimmy Kimmel seem to get it right.

Here’s my take on how to straighten out the many messes facing this year’s 76th Primetime Emmy Awards, starting with what should be a simple question: What exactly is a TV drama, anyway?

Best Drama Series: The Bear

What’s that, you say? FX’s The Bear is currently the Emmys’ most-nominated comedy, with 23 nods for its second season? Not in the land of the Deggys.

I say this with all due respect to my friends at FX, who have fought the is-it-really-a-comedy backlash heroically since the show first began scooping up awards. But it is obvious the core of The Bear’s storytelling centers on chef Carmy Berzatto’s dramatic, anguished struggle to transform his family’s greasy spoon restaurant into a fine dining establishment, while learning how much of his driven nature comes from his family’s unhinged passions, abuse from a toxic mentor and his brother’s suicide. This is a streak of dramatic excellence no number of cool, comedic cameos could possibly overcome. The Bear is not only a drama, it is the best drama on TV.

What will actually win? FX’s Shogun. This is also a no-brainer – with no shade intended for fellow nominees like Fallout, Slow Horses, 3 Body Problem and Mr. & Mrs. Smith. FX stepped up with a new take on James Clavell’s 1975 novel, outpacing the 1980 miniseries by de-centering the British white guy at the heart of the story, while spending millions to authentically recreate the look of feudal Japan. The Television Academy rewarded them with the most nominations of any series – 25 nods – and a record-breaking string of victories at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards last weekend. I’m also expecting loads of success at the mothership Emmys. But Shogun’s Deggys haul will come in another category.

Best Comedy Series: Reservation Dogs

This is the last year the Emmys can honor this groundbreaking coming-of-age comedy about four indigenous teens in rural Oklahoma sorting through life, with the help of elders, spirit guides and more. Showrunner Sterlin Harjo, who co-created the show with Taika Waititi, ended the series last year, just as some TV fans were discovering their amazing mix of absurdist comedy and poignant drama. That their work showcases so much indigenous talent in the cast and crew is a wonderful plus but not entirely the point: Reservation Dogs is just funny, compelling and revolutionary, all the things a Deggy requires.

Honorable mention: To Hulu’s Only Murders in the Building, which somehow manages to stay witty and entertaining despite a ludicrous premise – occupants of a Manhattan apartment building constantly solving murders for a podcast in their tony abode – with loads of celebrity cameos, including ace turns by Meryl Streep and Paul Rudd.

What will actually win? The Bear. As the second-most nominated series, with 23 nods, it is a favorite of the Television Academy. FX wisely positioned it as a comedy, initially, to avoid the crushing past dominance in drama of HBO’s Succession – which itself was a dark comedy – and now to make room for Shogun’s triumph. In truth, there should be a better way of sorting through programs with equal footing in drama and comedy like The Bear and fellow best comedy nominee Hacks. Until there is, the Deggys must suffice.

Best Limited or Anthology Series: True Detective: Night Country

Not only did True Detective: Night Country showrunner, Mexican director/writer/producer Issa Lopez rescue HBO’s anthology series by putting women – especially indigenous women – at the center of an evocative reinvention of HBO’s moribund cop show. But Lopez was classy and indomitable when the show’s original creator, Nic Pizzolatto, posted and elevated critical comments about the new version on social media. For giving Jodie Foster yet another amazing role and remaining above the fray even when some men lost their cool, I’m handing Lopez and True Detective a giant, shiny Deggy.

Another winner for Best Limited or Anthology Series: Shogun

And because this is my awards show, another Deggy in this category is going to Shogun. I know: Shogun is now a continuing series, because FX plans to make two more seasons of the show. But when it originally aired early this year, that plan wasn’t in place. So I’m using a technicality to hand out a Deggy in the category which often honors big budget, gigantic creative swings which prove that high quality TV created with authenticity and style can still make a mark. FX dominates as a platform still capable of generating the kind of landmark TV that HBO and Showtime once also regularly contributed, developing and greenlighting ambitious series because someone saw something unique and wanted to take a chance. Expect them to have a historic number of wins on Sunday.

What will actually win? Netflix’s Baby Reindeer will probably take this category, fueled by ace performances from creator-star Richard Gadd and co-star Jessica Gunning, along with ongoing fascination over the show’s roots in real-life stalking incidents Gadd says he experienced.

Best Supporting Actress in a Drama: Liza Colon-Zayas of The Bear

At the Emmys, Colon-Zayas is nominated on the comedy side, in a category packed with stars like Carol Burnett (Palm Royale), previous winner Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary) and acting legend Meryl Streep (Only Murders in the Building). So she doesn’t have much of a shot this year. And I’ll admit I’m influenced by her standout performance in the third season of The Bear, which debuted in June. (Because the show rolls out new seasons after Emmy’s deadlines, Colon-Zayas was nominated for performances from the show’s second season, which aired last year). Since I have already declared The Bear a drama, I’m still giving Colon-Zayas props for stepping up in a way that every performer on this show somehow manages, regardless of how big their role is. I’m happy to give her a Deggy one year before she’s likely to earn an Emmy on her own.

Who will actually win? Elizabeth Debicki, whose unerring portrayal of Princess Diana remains the most remarkable element of an underwhelming final season for The Crown.

Best Talk Series: Hot Ones

One of the only Emmy snubs I really cared about was the lack of a nomination for Hot Ones, a show on YouTube with a concept that feels like it was dreamed up during a pub crawl of chicken wing joints. But host Sean Evans elevates the simple concept of asking stars probing questions while they eat wings so hot their brains are scrambled. Evans delights in finding little-known nuggets to ask his guests about – he knew the crazy odd jobs John Oliver had before he got famous, for instance – and offers soothing words as they both eat chicken slathered in increasingly hot sauces. Because the industry needs new, entertaining formats for talk shows to shore up a declining late night universe, hopefully this Deggy will inspire more such innovation.

What will actually win? My money’s on The Daily Show, which not only managed to maintain its quality through a series of guest hosts, but has settled into a commanding, entertaining groove with the return of host Jon Stewart once a week. Stewart is backed by the correspondents, who seem to find new depths every time they each take the host’s chair.