In swing-state Wisconsin, new districts threaten the GOP hold on the Legislature

GREEN BAY, Wis. — Smoke from portable grills filled the air with the smell of bratwurst on a recent Sunday in the parking lots that surround Lambeau Field.

People were gathered to watch the Green Bay Packers take on the rival Minnesota Vikings, but in a state and city where football is a staple of the culture, they were also there for the pregame tailgate and the experience of one of Wisconsin's premier gathering places.

In one of the crowded lots, the Packers Tailgate Band meandered its way through lawn chairs and folding tables full of food. Brass and woodwind instruments carried the tune while a makeshift drum set mounted to a stroller kept the time. When the band played "Roll Out The Barrel," a Wisconsin polka staple, people got up from their seats and danced.

"It's probably like the best job I have," said Tim Kozlovski, the band's sousaphone player. "It's just having fun with people and partying with them and getting them in the spirit for the game."

Kozlovski said the Packers unify people in Wisconsin — he calls it a "good place in your heart." And in an atmosphere like that, he said there are some things you just don't talk about, like politics.

"You gotta learn to keep that to yourself when you're trying to make people happy," he said.

Not everyone has that luxury in Green Bay, where for the first time in years, Lambeau Field and the surrounding community are part of a fierce campaign that could decide control of the Wisconsin Legislature. A couple of parking lots over, local Democrats are tailgating, hoping to unlock the political power they were granted when the state redrew its political maps and turned this once-safe GOP district competitive.

"I actually enjoy talking about politics," said Ryan Spaude, the Democratic candidate running to represent this area at the state Capitol in Madison. He’s a local prosecutor. "I enjoy having a respectful dialogue with other folks about politics. I also think we can do better than some of the yahoos that are down there in Madison right now."

Spaude is well aware of the divided nature of his district. President Joe Biden would have won this district in 2020—former President Donald Trump would have carried it in 2016. He jokes that this district is as purple as some of the Minnesota Vikings jerseys in the crowd that day.

"Ninety-nine seats in the state Assembly," Spaude said. "There's about a dozen that are like mine that could go either way. These seats will determine who gets the majority."

Wisconsin could swing up and down the ballot

When it comes to races for statewide office, Wisconsin has a well-earned reputation as a swing state. Four of the last six presidential contests have been decided by less than a percentage point.

But in races for the Legislature, it's been anything but competitive ever since 2011, when Republicans took control of state government and redrew the state's legislative district lines, cementing their power for years to come.

"There would be a couple competitive seats in the state Assembly every year, but the outcome of them was basically inconsequential," said John Johnson, a redistricting expert at Marquette University Law School. "There was no chance that majority control of the chamber would change."

The GOP used its majorities to shift Wisconsin's politics to the right. When Republican Scott Walker was in the governor's office, they famously passed laws that weakened unions in a state with deep ties to organized labor.

Even after Democratic Gov. Tony Evers took office, their legislative majorities effectively gave Republicans veto power. As neighboring states expanded Medicaid or legalized marijuana, the GOP was able to block Evers' plans that would have had Wisconsin join them.

This election, in this 50-50 district, the debate is different. Spaude said the number one issue he hears from voters is about the cost -of -living.

"The second issue is—why can't you people work together? Just the gridlock you see," Spaude said.

Nearby, Patrick Buckley, Spaude's Republican opponent is also making the rounds. He's a small business owner and former police officer who currently chairs the board of Brown County, home to Green Bay.

"We get a lot of stuff done at the county," Buckley said. "I'd like to take what I've learned there at the county to the state level. Because I think we need that there."

Buckley said the new map created an opening for him because this new district had no incumbent. But he insists he hasn't really thought about how his race could tip the balance in the Legislature. When asked about the top three things he talks about with voters, Buckley has a clear answer.

"Economy, economy, economy," Buckley said. "A lot of people are hurting out there, and we gotta figure out what we can do as government to give them some sort of relief."

New voting maps loosen GOP grip

The idea that Wisconsin could be in this position seemed, just a few years ago, almost impossible. Even with Evers in the governor's office, the Legislature redrew Wisconsin's maps to make them even more powerful with the help of a then-conservative majority on Wisconsin's Supreme Court.

But everything changed in 2023 when voters flipped control of the court from conservative to liberal, and the new majority ordered new maps drawn

In an unexpected twist, the Republican-controlled Legislature chose maps that were drawn by Evers, making the political calculation that it was their least-worst option. In a brief speech before their vote, Republican Assembly Speaker Robin Vos said the new maps would be "very competitive," and the Legislature would be "up for grabs."

"We will have the ability to decide if we want to go toward the direction of Minnesota and Michigan," Vos said, referencing two states where Democrats control both the state Legislature and the governor's office."Or [if] we want to stay in the direction that we're heading in Wisconsin, where we have the ability to have a lower tax burden, a lower regulatory touch, and still a historically good economy for Wisconsin. So I'm optimistic."

This will be the first test of how that debate plays out in Wisconsin. As with many political issues, the answer could be complicated.

A few blocks away from Lambeau Field, Bud Hearley was watching the game with family and friends from the comfort of a garage turned into a bar. Hearley, who lives in a nearby district, said there are too many extremes in politics, and he'd like to see more compromise.

"I'm looking for a little more give and take on both sides with the issues that they make so extreme," Hearley said. "There's not enough middle."

Hearly doesn't fit neatly into one box when it comes to the issues. He favors the legalization of marijuana and thinks women should have the right to abortion, with some limits. He's also a strong supporter of capitalism who is leery of government overreach. And he tends to vote for Republicans.

Back at the tailgating event, Democratic voter Denise Gaumer Hutchison concedes that Democrats may or may not win it all this year, but for the first time in years, she said they'll at least be able to force Republicans to have a dialog. That was never possible, she said, under the state's old maps.

"Those maps were not fair to the point that legislators wouldn't even try," Gaumer Hutchison said. "They wouldn't even do doors. They wouldn't even come talk to people who might be of a different opinion because they didn't have to. Now they have to."

It's not just Lambeau Field's Assembly seat that's up for grabs this year. The district next door is so close it would have been won by both Evers, a Democrat, and Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson two years ago. The surrounding Senate district could also flip and give Democrats a chance at winning that chamber in 2026.

Regardless of the outcome, there's already been a political sea change in Wisconsin, a state where the race for president is seemingly always up for grabs, and now the state Legislature is, too.