Harris needs young voters of color to win. A new poll finds cracks in her support

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Supporters watch Vice President Harris speak during a rally in Flint, Mich. / Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

When Vice President Harris took over the Democratic ticket this summer, her candidacy brought viral memes, packed rallies and a boost in the polls. Some of the biggest gains were among young Americans, a key Democratic-leaning group that President Biden struggled with before dropping out.

But now, with just under two weeks until voting closes, a new poll finds that some of the early enthusiasm around Harris among young voters may be starting to plateau. 

Harris is continuing to outperform former President Donald Trump among Gen Z and millennial voters 47% to 35%, according to the University of Chicago’s latest GenForward poll released Wednesday.

The survey, which was exclusively obtained by NPR, polled more than 2,300 white, Black, Latino and Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) individuals under the age of 40 from Sept. 26 to Oct. 6.

Despite her advantage, the GenForward poll points to a key challenge still remaining for Harris. While the findings show the vice president performing better with younger Americans than President Biden did before he left the race, she has struggled to match the historically high support that Biden enjoyed from voters under 30 during the 2020 election, especially among young Americans of color. That support diminished during Biden’s presidency, and Harris has been unable to regain it.

“The threat of Trump that I think many voters who align with the Democratic Party believe is imminent, I'm not sure young people kind of buy into that narrative,” said Cathy Cohen, a professor at the University of Chicago who founded and serves as the executive director of the GenForward poll.

“I also think that for young voters of color, there is a kind of tentative feeling about the effectiveness of democracy anyway,” she added.

The GenForward poll details a complicated picture of support for Harris when it comes to young voters — especially when broken down by race and ethnicity.

Though Harris enjoys support among six in 10 young Black Americans, it’s a drop compared to Biden’s standing in GenForward’s poll from four years ago, when more than seven in 10 backed him.

For Trump, one in five young Black Americans said they back the former president; among Black men specifically, Trump’s support stood at 25%.

Among young Black women, just 12% said they were supporting Trump, but an additional 16% said they wanted “someone else” when given the options of Trump, Harris and a handful of third party candidates.

Harris has been making direct efforts to engage with Black voters on the campaign trail, laying out a set of economic proposals geared at Black men and doing interviews with media programs geared at Black audiences. But Cohen said she still faces skepticism.

“I think, come Election Day, those who turn out will overwhelmingly vote for Harris,” she said. “But I do think there's a generational moment in Black communities where young people are saying, ‘the Democrats haven't done enough for Black people.”

The poll also found holes in Harris’ support among other demographic groups. Despite her 12-point edge overall against Trump with young Latinos, the former president holds a lead specifically among Latino men.

Trump has additionally made gains among AAPI men since GenForward’s survey four years ago — though a majority of AAPI voters still side with Harris.

Harris and Trump are virtually tied among young white Americans — the only group under 45 that Trump won in 2020 — but the former president now holds a slight edge that is within the margin of error among young white women.

The findings come as Trump has grounded a sizable portion of his campaign’s outreach to young voters in interview appearances with a handful of popular male influencers and podcast hosts that have shows geared toward young men.

The issues shaping the youth vote: the economy and abortion

Harris has established credibility with younger voters on several key issues, including protecting access to reproductive rights — where Americans under 40 said they trusted her over Trump by a 36-point margin, according to the GenForward poll.

It’s an issue Harris has heavily campaigned on, given safeguarding access to the procedure has previously driven youth turnout. She also leads Trump in young voter trust on issues related to racism and inequality, providing housing opportunities and protecting democracy.

But Trump has an edge over Harris and third party candidates on handling a number of other issues, most notably inflation. It’s a topic where roughly four in 10 young Americans trust Trump to bring down prices.

That's significant because as with older voters, economic concerns remain the most important election issue for Americans under 40, according to the survey.

Because of that, Cohen said, it remains an obstacle for Harris in appealing to Gen Z and millennials.

“I believe, for many potential voters, when they come back to the issues that matter most to them right now — in terms of their life — they see [Harris], I think, as attached to a Biden administration that didn't handle inflation in particular,” Cohen said.

That said, there may still be some uncertainty in this race for young Americans still evaluating Harris’ candidacy, leaving room to make gains.

While nearly eight in 10 say they “pretty much already know” what they need to know about Trump, just 57% feel the same for Harris.

Instead, a third of respondents in the poll said they still want to learn more — particularly young Americans of color — presenting an opportunity for the Harris campaign to potentially pick up more votes, but the clock is ticking.