Why 'the last Democrat standing' in Montana is skipping the DNC

GREAT FALLS — Democrats are bringing new energy to their party convention in Chicago next week. But that enthusiasm isn’t trickling down to a race in one rural state that could decide the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.

In Montana, three-term Senator John Tester is in a tight race against Republican Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL.

Tester has refused to endorse Kamala Harris and his campaign says he won’t be attending the DNC because it’s harvest time and he’s busy on his farm near Big Sandy, Montana. He’s also too busy also for interviews, according to his campaign.

But Tester has a well-established and proven brand in Montana, so maybe it doesn’t matter. The airwaves here are blanketed with ads reminding Montanans that he’s a third generation local, the Senate’s only working farmer, hardly a coastal elite Democrat.

In one video ad, he earnestly addresses the camera, saying, “I’m protecting our freedoms, because Montanans don’t like to be told how to live by anyone, especially the government.”

Backlash against the wealthy

Democrats are also ripping his Republican opponent Tim Sheehy as a wealthy out-of-state transplant with a ranch and resort homes in elite Big Sky and on Flathead Lake.

But in the state capitol, Helena, longtime politicos like columnist George Ochenski question the strategy of going after Sheehy’s wealth, because the electorate admires a successful businessman.

 “The Democrat strategists have been off base for quite a long time now, and now there’s only one Demo statewide seat left, and that’s Jon Tester,” Ochenski says. “And he’s scared. He’s really scared.”

Scared because Donald Trump won Montana by double digits in the last two elections. With Tester not talking, Sheehy got all the headlines the other day when the former president arrived for a fundraiser at the ultra-wealthy Yellowstone Club and a rally in Bozeman.

Introducing Trump to an adoring crowd was Tester’s Republican challenger, 38-year-old Tim Sheehy, who moved to Montana in 2014 and started a firefighting aviation company. He said Tester is a rubber stamp for the Biden-Harris agenda.

“The truth is every single time America has been on the ballot in the U.S. Senate, Jon Tester’s voted the other way,” Sheehy told the crowd.

Sheehy’s campaign did not respond to interview requests. It did seem like most of the people at the rally and lined up outside for hours beforehand were there to see Trump though.

Decked out in MAGA gear, some even drove over from surrounding states. In typically summer tourist clogged Bozeman, pickups with Trump flags blazing peeled out in intersections to cheers - and some jeers.

Local Republican legislator Jane Gillette says Trump’s visit is key for GOP down ballot turnout. But she says some voters still see Sheehy as an establishment pick.

“I ultimately will get to the point where I will fill in the bubble next to Tim Sheehy because I want to see what’s best for the party,” Gillette says. “But I will say that there are some that would rather see Tester stay in place because they think that there’s another opportunity to beat him with the right candidate later on.”

This could be a factor. Since 2006, Tester has never won by more than four percent.

Montana used to be known for its purple streak. But today when you leave the liberal college towns or prosperous resort valleys, it’s clear the modern Trump GOP message resonates in rural areas that feel more left behind.

At a roadside farmers market in White Sulphur Springs, Jeffrey Campbell says he always voted for Tester because he lives nearby.

But he won’t this year, he says Tester's whole campaign is, "just smearing [Sheehy]. He’s not talking anything about what he’s gonna do, he’s just - ‘shady Sheehy’.”  

But you still see Tester signs in pastures, even next to Trump banners painted onto barns.

In blue collar Great Falls, once a Democratic stronghold, Tester’s campaign is again counting on independents like Michael Winters to vote people over party. Winters is a Republican, veteran, and former mayor here.

He says Tester is, "a third generation Montanan. He’s friendly. He doesn’t have any qualms about walking up to you and stick his hand out and say, hi, I’m Jon, let’s have a beer, you know.”

Winters says Montana would be foolish to send Tester packing, as he sits on the powerful Appropriations and Veterans committees.

A recent poll ahead of Trump’s rally showed this race in familiar territory for the Democrat, within the margin of error.