Taylor Williams, 24, smiles after dropping off her ballot on Election Day at City Hall in San Francisco.

Taylor Williams, 24, smiles after dropping off her ballot on Election Day at City Hall in San Francisco. / KQED

Four years ago, voters under 30 turned out in historically high numbers compared to past presidential elections and handily sided with President Biden over former President Donald Trump.

Though voters under 30 have historically turned out at much lower rates than older generations, they could make a difference on the margins in key swing states decided by just a few percentage points.

Vice President Harris is trying to repeat Biden’s success with these key voters. Trump, however, is also trying to win with young people.

This year, there are an estimated 8 million people newly eligible to vote in their first presidential race. Plus, Gen Z and millennials as a whole — those under 43 — are expected to make up nearly half the electorate this year, according to the U.S. Census.

While both Trump and Harris are vying for this group, the stakes are higher for Harris, who likely needs to win at least 60% of the voting bloc.

That’s what’s worked for Democrats in the past. An NPR analysis found that in recent presidential elections, dating back to 2008, winning Democratic candidates have carried at least 60% of the youth vote.