Analysis: In Savannah, Harris and Walz court Southeast Georgia voters

Caption

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz talk as they visit SandFly Bar-B-Q in Savannah, Ga., Wednesday, Aug. 28, 2024.

Credit: AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin

Vice President Kamala Harris is no stranger to the Peach State in her campaign for president, but for the first time, she and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, campaigned together in Georgia—this time heading to Savannah and southeastern parts of the state. The two spent Wednesday on a brief bus tour of Liberty County and nearby Chatham County, and Harris will rally supporters at Enmarket Arena in Savannah on Thursday.

Georgia has long been considered a battleground in the 2024 presidential contest, but since Harris ascended to the top of the ticket, polls show a more competitive race between her and former President Donald Trump.

Andra Gillespie, an associate professor of political science at Emory University, was a guest on GPB's Morning Edition, where she said Harris’ focus on southeast Georgia is part of a strategy to mobilize Democratic voters across the state in a contest that will be won on the margins.

“They have to get every possible Democratic voter out,” Gillespie said. “Thinking about Savannah, Columbus, Albany, Athens, Augusta, and all these places where there are Democratic voters. Not neglecting rural Democratic counties is all part of an all-hands-on-deck strategy to make sure that you don't leave any margin for error.”

Gillespie noted that voter mobilization will be especially crucial in Georgia if the Harris campaign hopes to swing the state blue in November.

“Georgia might not be Pennsylvania in terms of Electoral College votes, but Georgia could be part of a winning strategy. And if you win the bigger states, of which Georgia is one of the larger battleground states, that puts you much, much closer to 270 Electoral College votes,” she said.

On the other side, the Trump campaign is also taking its Georgia efforts seriously. Governor Brian Kemp, alongside First Lady Marty Kemp and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, is set to co-headline a fundraiser for Trump in Atlanta on the same day as the Harris rally—a move that signals a mending of the relationship between Kemp and Trump.

The former president has had a tense relationship with Kemp since his 2020 election loss when the governor refused to call the legislature into a special session to replace Biden’s electors with those pledged to Trump.

Gillespie says the cooling of tensions between the two isn’t too surprising.

“It's not surprising at all that they would figure out how to at least come to a place where they can work together for this particular election cycle,” she said.
 

Transcript

Pamela Kirkland: It seems like both of the campaigns, both the Trump-Vance campaign and the Harris-Walz campaign are focused on Georgia, and both feel like it's in within reach for them. So we've seen both of them down here a lot. Vice President Harris and her running mate Tim Walz are here this week. What do you make of this trip that they're embarking on? And especially since they're they're in southeast Georgia, they're over in Savannah this time.

Andra Gillespie: Yeah. And, well, I think that there are a couple of things. One, it reflects the fact that Georgia is in play. If we look at the latest polls, it is a statistical tie between Donald Trump, and Kamala Harris. So Trump is still up, but not by enough that I would say statistically that he's ahead. So the race is still anybody's. And so Harris wants to make it competitive. You know, she wants to win as many states and electoral votes as possible, but you also want to buffer, you know, in case, she loses some other state. And so Georgia might not be Pennsylvania, in terms of it doesn't have as many Electoral College votes, but Georgia could be part of a winning strategy. And if you win the bigger states, of which Georgia is one of the bigger battleground states, that puts you much, much closer, to 270 electoral College votes. It's not surprising that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz would come to southeast Georgia. In the initial rollout week after Walz was announced as the vice presidential pick. The intention had been to make an appearance, in Georgia on a barnstorming tour of all of the battleground states. And that had to be postponed because of Hurricane Debbie. So in some ways, this is a bit of a do over, from that, unintended postponement. But it's also significant that the Harris Walz ticket wants to focus not just on Atlanta, which they come to regularly, but also to the rest of the state. Atlanta is only half of the state of Georgia. Not every person who lives in Atlanta is a Democrat. And so Democrats hope to win. They have to get every possible Democratic voter out. Harris isn't language. She says she's an underdog. She's certainly an underdog here in Georgia, where there are still more Republicans than there are Democrats. And so Democrats hope to win. They hope that Republicans are not enthusiastic about, controversial candidate. And they're hoping that Donald Trump is controversial enough that he sort of fits that, dampening enthusiasm kind of, category. But they also have to match dampening Republican enthusiasm if they can get it with, a perfect voter mobilization campaign to make up for the fact that they do have a numerical disadvantage in the state. So, you know, making sure that you don't neglect the other Democratic stronghold in the state. So not just Atlanta, but thinking about Savannah, and Columbus and Albany and Athens and Augusta and all these places where they're Democratic voters, not neglecting rural Democratic counties. We forget that there are rural Democratic counties and that there are black people in particular in some of these rural counties, and that there are Latino voters in some of these rural counties, in the state, who might be inclined to support Kamala Harris is all part of an all hands on deck strategy to make sure that you don't leave any margin for error.

Pamela Kirkland: And obviously, the Harris campaign is hoping to follow at least a little bit of the playbook that they used in 2020 when President Biden was at the top of the ticket. What do you think has changed since 2022 now in terms of how the strategy needs to be? How has Georgia changed in the past four years?

Andra Gillespie: Well, I think there are a number of factors that make 2024 different from 2020. To the idea of Donald Trump as a controversial candidate has changed in 2020. There was a lot of policy focus on Covid 19. And how the Trump administration approach the handling of the virus. And that was the type of thing that may have, caused some suburban voters to lose heart and to not want to support or turn out for Donald Trump in the way that he needed in this election. You can't count on that type of crisis focusing people's attention on Donald Trump's foibles, which are pretty much baked into the cake at this particular point. So the Covid factor is going to be different. The other thing that I think is, you know, really important, in the state is to think about what mobilization looks like. So even Donald Trump has said but what's most important, I think here is what the Republicans are doing, is they are not issuing methods of voter outreach and encouraging people to use certain types of voting methods that were discouraged in 2020. I'm going to repeat that over and to so that I can make sure that, I think the other thing that Democrats can't count on is for Republicans to use the same type of mobilization strategy that they did in 2020. Donald Trump very famously, you know, opposed absentee balloting. You know, opposed early voting. You know, despite the fact that he may have engaged in some of that behavior. And so he actively discouraged Republican voters from participating in those activities because he wanted to post big numbers on election night. And so we know the aftermath of that, how he used that to kind of advance election denial claims and other kinds of things. But quietly, Republicans actually are encouraging Republican voters to vote any way they want. And so they are not leaving early and absentee voting off of the table. So with that in mind, Democrats can't assume that they can, employ the same strategy, or they shouldn't assume that voter turnout is going to be depressed amongst, Republican voters. So that actually only, enhances the need for Democrats to make sure that they run a flawless campaign because Republicans have a larger pool of voters from which to draw. The Democrats do. And so, what you want is for all the Democrats to possibly show up to vote, and then you hope that not all of the Republicans show up to.

Pamela Kirkland: The Trump campaign. JD Vance was in Valdosta last week. You have Governor Brian Kemp, who's actually going to be co-headlining a fundraiser for former President Trump on Thursday. What does it say to you that we've now seen them kind of make amends with that relationship? Last time Trump was in Atlanta, he spent a lot of time during his rally blasting Governor Kemp. Governor Kemp seemed to kind of distance himself from that and wanted the candidate to focus on the race and not him necessarily. But what does it say to you that Kemp and his and First lady, Marty Kemp, will be co-headlining this fundraiser for Donald Trump and raising money for him in Atlanta?

Andra Gillespie: Well, I think we first need to see how much money is raised from this. I think this is going to give you a sense of the sincerity and the enthusiasm, of the Kemp machine, to come out and support Donald Trump. Overall, I view this as a marriage of, convenience or expediency. Brian Kemp is a solid Republican. I don't think he could vote for Kamala Harris. And in particular, given the fact that we assume he has senatorial aspirations, he is not going to want to alienate important parts of the Republican base as he may be looking ahead to 2026. So, you know, it's not surprising at all that they would figure out how to, at least come to a place where they can work together for this particular election cycle. Do I think that, you know, they're going to be best friends going forward? Probably not. And, you know, I think it depends on how much Brian Kemp would actually try to utilize Donald Trump's support. For, you know, for Senate campaign in 2026. If Donald Trump is president, I'm sure he, you know, we'll covet that endorsement and that level of support. If Donald Trump were to lose this election. You know, I don't expect to see, Donald Trump expending any political capital on Ryan Kemp's behalf, even if they have a real push for this election.

Pamela Kirkland: Andra Gillespie, thank you so much for joining me.